28th UN Climate Change Conference

Scientific Reports and Policy
Written By Anonymous

The UN just held the 28th Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai. Some activists are celebrating the conference as a win because it’s the first COP where world leaders clearly stated that coal, oil, and natural gas are causing present day global warming and need to be phased out. Something scientists and activists have been attempting to explain for over 30 years.

This is a step in the right direction, but many activists are unhappy with the results of the conference because there wasn’t a clear plan developed specifying how to phase out fossil fuels in a rapid, systematic way and there wasn’t enough funding allocated. Countries made loose, non-binding agreements to stop releasing carbon into the atmosphere by 2050.

Limited time to act

Scientists are saying that climate and ecological breakdown is happening more quickly than projected, that the speed of global warming could double over the next decade as aerosol levels drop, and that wealthy countries need to get off fossil fuels by 2040 for any chance of staying below 1.5 degrees C heating. Staying below 1.5 degrees C heating is the goal of the Paris climate agreement. Beyond that point, an increasing number of dangerous tipping points will be triggered.

James Hansen, a NASA climate scientist, reports that 1.5 degrees C heating has already been breached and predicts that 2 degrees C warming is locked in because of accelerated heating for the next decade and increased energy imbalance & climate sensitivity. Hansen says that, without a major shift away from business as usual, we’ll hit 2 degrees C heating in the 2030s. 2 degrees C heating would be catastrophic.

Just transition

Developing countries need fossil fuels to grow their economy and afford the transition to renewables. They are also burdened by debt, making it unfeasible for them to afford the transition away from fossil fuels and onto renewables without the help of wealthy countries, who have failed to keep their financial commitments.

Leaders of Island Nations are upset with the results of the conference because their countries require more urgent action in order to ensure that they aren’t wiped out by sea-level rise in the coming decades.

Vague language

The language used in the final agreement drafted at the conference is loose and “forgiving,” with loopholes that give nations the freedom to continue burning and enabling the fossil fuel industry. The agreement also references relying on Carbon Capture and Storage as a solution. Carbon capture is expensive, hasn’t been proven to work at scale, and gives countries and the fossil fuel industry the green-light to continue burning.

Within two years, nations are supposed to submit a formal plan about how they will transition away from fossil fuels from now until 2035.

Ecological Breakdown

Climate change and fossil fuels are only part of the problem. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) reported that the sixth mass extinction and ecological collapse are also fueled by chemicals & pollution, changes in land and sea use, exploitation of organisms, and invasive non-native species.

We need to transition off fossil fuels and transition away from a linear, growth based economic system that has no regard for the natural world, other species that we rely on for survival, or planetary boundaries.

Conclusion

COP28 is the first time decision makers and leaders of wealthy countries have clearly stated that fossil fuels are causing global warming and need to be phased out. Unfortunately, it is too little too late for many people, communities, and countries. The speed of their action will determine how many more lives, human and nonhuman, are needlessly sacrificed. Decision makers also need to create policies that will limit pollution and the overuse of Earth’s finite resources.

More reading

Anonymous
Previous

Healing our relationship with nature
Next

Climate Groups for minority populations