Net Zero by 2050 is too late
We may have 400 billion tonnes of carbon left to burn before we need to rapidly phase out existing fossil fuel infrastructure. But some scientists fear that we have already locked in 1.5 degrees C heating because of historic emissions, the aerosol effect, and because we are hitting Earths tipping points (which will naturally release trapped planet-warming emissions) must sooner than expected.
Recent extreme temperatures and weather events indicate that 1.5 degrees C of heating might be more dangerous than previously thought, just as 2 degrees C of heating used to be considered acceptable. During the summer of 2022 we experienced record flooding, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and crop failures in the U.S. and across the globe that weren’t expected until 2050 and will get more extreme every year if governments continue not to act with enough urgency. It’s dangerous to continue putting off reaching zero emissions.
Phys.org, Rich nations need to ditch fossil fuels by 2040: scientists
Read a roundup of the headlines:
“As temperatures exceeding 45°C swept over South and Southeast Asia in the past weeks, governments have been struggling to meet record-breaking power demand as people turn to air conditioning en masse. Over a dozen people have died from the heat in India, Malaysia and Thailand.
Faced with a steep public health challenge, policymakers are relying on fossil fuels to do the heavy lifting. Commodity analyst S&P Global reported a surge in natural gas demand from Thailand, Bangladesh and India in April. Asia is also importing significantly more Russian coal and fuel oil last month, Bloomberg reported, citing data analyst Kpler…
Experts fear that regular hot weather episodes will keep policymakers returning to tried-and-tested fossil fuels for power generation, instead of ramping up clean energy infrastructure. While more solar and wind generators have been installed in recent years, some analysts believe they are not yet able to handle large heatwave episodes. “
Eco-business, As Asian heatwaves require burning more fossil fuels, fears of a slower transition grow
“If the long-term pledges by countries to hit net zero emissions by 2050 were delivered, global temperature would rise by 1.8C. But the glacial pace of action means meeting even this temperature limit was not credible, the UN report said.
Countries agreed at the Cop26 climate summit a year ago to increase their pledges. But with Cop27 looming, only a couple of dozen have done so and the new pledges would shave just 1% off emissions in 2030. Global emissions must fall by almost 50% by that date to keep the 1.5C target alive.“
The Guardian, Climate crisis: UN finds ‘no credible pathway to 1.5C in place’
“A landmark report from the International Energy Agency says countries need to move faster and more aggressively to cut planet-warming pollution. Nations around the world would need to immediately stop approving new coal-fired power plants and new oil and gas fields and quickly phase out gasoline-powered vehicles if they want to avert the most catastrophic effects of climate change, the world’s leading energy agency said Tuesday.”
Excerpt from: The Final Warning Bell
“The report, titled ‘The Final Warning Bell’ suggests that even if countries achieve net zero by mid-century, this will not tackle greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, with CO2 equivalent concentrations potentially continuing to climb as high as 540ppm (parts per million). This means there is little to no room for manoeuvre, with only a 50% chance of holding the 1.5°C line.
With 67 days to go until COP26, CCAG is urging global leaders to shift emphasis towards net negative emissions targets as the only viable way to ensure greenhouse gas levels can return to pre-industrial levels, in line with the Paris Agreement. If not, it is likely that global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C as soon as 2030, taking the world into a zone of dangerous climate change.
Sir David King, Chair of CCAG, commented: “Achieving net zero by 2050 is no longer enough to ensure a safe future for humanity; we must revise global targets beyond net zero, and commit to net negative strategies urgently.
“It’s clearer than ever that there is no carbon budget remaining, and there really is no room left for manoeuvre; this is our ‘now or never’ moment. The world will be watching in November, as governments and policymakers come together at COP26, and they must put the future of humanity first.”
Envirotec Magazine, Net zero by 2050 is “too little too late”: Scientists make a case for net negative strategies
“Of the over 400 climate scenarios assessed in the 1.5°C report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), only around 50 scenarios avoid significantly overshooting 1.5°C. Of those only around 20 make realistic assumptions on mitigation options, for instance the rate and scale of carbon removal from the atmosphere or extent of tree planting, a new study shows. All 20 scenarios need to pull at least one mitigation lever at 'challenging' rather than 'reasonable' levels, according to the analysis. Hence the world faces a high degree of risk of overstepping the 1.5°C limit. The realistic window for meeting the 1.5°C target is very rapidly closing.”
NY Times, Nations Must Drop Fossil Fuels, Fast, World Energy Body Warns
“Climate scientists are increasingly concerned that global heating will trigger tipping points in Earth’s natural systems, which will lead to widespread and possibly irrevocable disaster, unless action is taken urgently. The impacts are likely to be much closer than most people realise, a draft report from the world’s leading climate scientists suggests, and will fundamentally reshape life in the coming decades even if greenhouse gas emissions are brought under some control.”
Phsy.org, Few realistic scenarios left to limit global warming to 1.5°C
“Our best estimate of the 1.5C remaining carbon budget is 440 billion tonnes of CO2 from 2020 onward. If human activities around the globe continue to produce CO2 at current rates, we will deplete the remaining carbon budget in a little more than 10 years.
If we slow our rate of emissions, the remaining budget will last longer. To avoid exceeding the remaining carbon budget, we need to stop emitting CO2 altogether. A budget of 440 billion tonnes from 2020 means that global CO2 emissions need to decrease to net-zero by about 2040.
However, even this would give us only a 50 per cent chance of not exceeding 1.5C. For a 67 per cent chance, total CO2 emissions must not exceed 230 billion tonnes. This is about five years of current emissions, or reaching net-zero emissions by 2030.”
The Conversation, New research suggests 1.5C climate target will be out of reach without greener COVID-19recovery plans
“Net Negative Strategies
“We must reduce emissions, everyone must phase out fossil fuels at record speed (cutting emissions in half each decade)
If we reduce and reach net zero by 2050 we might hit 540 ppm, which would be a catastrophe, we would the need second half of century to remove and repair.
We need to repair parts of the planet that have been harmed and are nearing dangerous tipping points, like refreezing poles.”
Reduce, Remove, Repair: Net zero by 2050 is “too little too late”: world-leading scientists urge global leaders to focus on net negative strategies
More Reading
The Guardian, IPCC steps up warning on climate tipping points in leaked draft report
The Guardian, Hitting net zero is not enough – we must restore the climate
The Guardian, Net zero is not enough – we need to build a nature-positive future
Fast Company, How ‘net-zero’ climate goals often disguise pollution
Common Dreams, Scientists Say Net Zero by 2050 Is Too Late
The Guardian, World close to ‘irreversible’ climate breakdown, warn major studies
The Guardian, Climate endgame: risk of human extinction ‘dangerously underexplored’